Add this as the latest in the bewildering flurry of confusing and contradictory information about the Sarasota real estate market. According to Today Show Real Estate Expert Barbara Corcoran, Sarasota is the number one place in the country to buy a home.

“Sarasota, Florida is probably what is a symbol of the worst real estate market in the country.”

- Barbara Corcoran

The reason she cites is all about market timing. According to Ms. Corcoran, prices fell one-third in 2008 and are rising rapidly — up 12% this year.

Now I’m not sure where Ms. Corcoran is getting her data, but perhaps she has failed to factor in the pending foreclosures in Sarasota County, which some speculate to number above 7,000! Of those, more than 5000 have yet to even hit the markets. And the other big unknown: what will the impact of the Option ARM resets be when they really begin to escalate in 2010 and 2011?

As I’ve said before, I have friends in the real estate business (and related industries) around here who constantly feed me information about what’s going on. And I must say, the numbers are so loaded with spin by the time they make their way into the public eye that it’s impossible to interpret them accurately.

Ultimately, like any investment, if you’re thinking about purchasing real estate in Sarasota, you need to do your own research and be prepared for the risks you face.

Also Barbara Corcoran’s list: (#2) San Francisco, CA, (#3) Lansing, MI, (#4) Marietta, GA, (#5) Grand Rapids, MI, (#6) St. Petersburg, FL, (#7) Naperville, IL, (#8) Trenton, NJ, (#9) St. Louis, MO, (#10) Saginaw, MI.

Is this encouraging for Sarasota real estate owners? You be the judge.

The Sarasota Herald-Tribune reports today that the new median home price (from October) dropped a whopping 19% from the September number to its lowest sum since 2002: $169,900.

With foreclosures at all-time highs, short sales and auctions on the courthouse steps are the major factors applying downward pressure on prices.

Since it wasn’t all that long ago that we were talking about the need for affordable housing, one problem, at least, is getting solved. In fact, just from a little informal research, there are many properties available below $100,000 now.

Have prices bottomed out? I don’t think so.

The numbers suggest that local values are falling much more rapidly than the national average. At this rate, the local economy has some major additional bumps in the road… especially when you consider that a significant percentage of ARMs taken out when prices were soaring have yet to adjust.

The bottom line? That equity you had in 2005 and 2006 wasn’t real… unless you happened to sell at or near the peak.