EpiphanyDigest

The Sarasota real estate market continues to be something I’m paying close attention to.  Why?  Very simply: our local economy is inextricably tied to what this market is doing.  When the housing market started to tank locally, it was the first domino in a long line.  As inventory levels (representing the number of single family homes and condominiums listed as “for sale”) have climbed, construction and other business sectors related to housing have all dived.

So, a couple of recent tidbits from Perry Corneau represent good news.  First, inventory levels are at their lowest in two and a half years.  This is great news, and I can anecdotally attest that I’m seeing fewer for sale signs.  What’s unclear to me is exactly what this represents…

• Is sales volume actually up?
• Are more banks in possession of properties now? If so, it seems to me that they’ve not been good at marketing the properties they own.  And when foreclosure occurs (as opposed to short sales), these properties wouldn’t appear in the MLS anyway.
• Have sellers given up on moving properties as prices have declined?

Another piece of good news: prices are still higher than they were 5 years ago.  In 2003, the market was still on a major upswing, but of course the highest prices were 2-3 years later.

Based upon numerous conversations with those keeping their eye on the market, here are my predictions: prices will continue to drop and volume will begin to surge.  For how long?  I’m not sure, but it seems to me that the “bottom” of this market hasn’t quite yet been reached — at least in terms of pricing.  There are a few investors who are starting to dip their toes into the water, but the buying frenzy that I expect isn’t here yet.

The best thing that can happen for this market is for transaction volume to increase.  This will help prices bottom out sooner rather than later.

And… in the interest of full disclosure… I currently do not have any property on the market. 

With so much talk of recession… and some actual slowdowns — some of them serious, especially within certain industries — businesses have a tendency to cut back in areas that can make matters worse.

Marketing is at the top of the list.

If you know me, then you know that I’m not in favor of untracked, unmeasurable and expensive advertising anyway.  So, don’t get too upset if you think I’m thinking mainly of advertising… I’m not.  What I’m referring to are the systems in your business that produce new prospects and/or customers on a regular basis.

You do have some of those, don’t you?

If not, then the time has come for you to put some in place.  And fast!  If you do, then it’s important that you proceed with caution if you’re eyeing them in your budget.

2 Big Announcements

First… we are happy to unveil a shiny new blog site that just launched. It is focused on small business marketing and already has a few posts on it (some of which were gleaned from other publications for which we’ve written).  This reflects the renewed focus in our business: Epiphany Marketing.

Secondly… there are a couple of big things coming in the next few weeks.  So, this is an announcement about our coming announcements!  But there will be some significant new opportunities for you as a business person to learn how to use applied strategy along with some free and low-cost technology to make sure that your future customers find you instead of someone else.  It’s going to be big!

Here’s a hint: there will be something happening in Sarasota.

If you’re one of our many readers from across the US and around the world… not to worry, we’ve got something coming for you, too.  Keep your eyes glued to this spot… and the new marketing blog, too!

Google recently added a setting to its Gmail service that allows users to always keep their sessions encrypted. It’s a really good idea to turn this one on if you want to keep hackers out of your account.

But I already login with https…

That’s true… the Gmail service handles your login in an encrypted fashion, but… unless you’re very specific about opening the site using https:// (or SSL), the service will authenticate your login and then switch you back to an http:// (non-encrypted) session.  So… your password remains secure, but your session does not.

A tool is about to be unleashed to hackers that will allow them to get busy breaking into Gmail accounts.  You’re particularly vulnerable if you access Gmail from a wifi hotspot or any public computer… which is one of the reasons we all have Gmail accounts, isn’t it?

Here’s how to make the change

Our “don’t be evil” friends have been kind enough to be very quiet about the new settings option, and then bury it so it’s hard to find. Here’s where to make the change:

1. Login to your Gmail account.  Here’s a hint: use this secure login link.
2. Click on “Settings” (on the top, near the right)
3. On the “General” tab, scroll all the way down. I’m including a picture below for you, but click “Always use https” and then save your changes. Your settings will be remembered no matter what computer you login from.

Now you should be in good shape.  Hey… when was the last time you changed this password? (You do change passwords regularly, right?)

By the way, if you’re interested, you can find the technical explanation here. (And you thought mine was technical!)

I’ve gotten a lot of questions from friends and business associates about the Ad Surf Daily Cash Generator program. Now that the US Attorney’s office has seized assets and filed suit, with Florida Attorney General Bill McCollum right behind, it seems likely that the program will not continue.

A Few Facts

Initially, I was approached by people who wanted me to look at the program to see if it seemed legit. My friends know that I do not join multi-level marketing programs, nor anything that seems like it might be a network marketing venture. Nonetheless, I took a peek at this program to find out if there was anything suspect about it on behalf of those friends.

The first clue that there might be something “up” was that people were wondering if it might be a scam.  Why? Well… the good old adage, “If it sounds too good to be true…” comes to mind.

Here’s the premise: you sign up for the program (even with a free account, if you prefer) under a sponsor. You then begin to “auto surf” ads every day. There are rewards for doing this, including the right to place a website of your own into the ad rotating system so that other people will be forced to view your site.

At this point, it sounds a little bit like a modified version of Pay-Per-Click advertising (PPC).  With PPC, which most people are familiar with because of the right-hand side of your Google search results, advertisers bid to have their ad show up on certain sites and then only pay when someone “clicks” on their ad.

Ad Surf Daily seems to provide a cost-effective way to do this… at first glance.

But what you quickly learn is that the vast majority of people who join (and later “purchase ad packages”) don’t actually have anything to advertise. So… the question becomes, “Why are they signing up?”

It turns out that if you “purchase ad packages,” (which the US Attorney’s Office has now labeled “investing”) you have the opportunity to “earn rebates” by faithfully viewing advertisements every day.  I won’t get into the mathematics of it, but let’s just say that this appears to be highly profitable because you can earn more in rebates than you “purchased.”

There are numerous incentives and rewards built into the program that are designed to get you to purchase more ad packages. Also, as a member of the program, you are incentivized to leave your earnings in the program because the higher your “cash balance,” the more rebates you’ll be able to earn.  You can even increase your rate of earnings by paying for a monthly membership at several different levels.  There are even big rallies where you can obtain much larger bonuses by “purchasing” ad packages on the spot…

And… of course, there are commissions.  This is where some of the biggest incentives are.  This is the part where you convince your friends and family (or even random acquaintances, like some of the people who have spammed my inbox about this) to sign up under you.

I Smell A Rat…

If you’re around the participants for very long, you hear amazing stories of large cash payouts. You hear about credit card debt being wiped out, even millionaires being created.  All of this occurs in short periods of time.  You hear about the explosive growth.  You hear about the founder, Andy Bowdoin, and his impressive award that was given to him by the President of the United States.  You hear about his many successful businesses over the years.  You also watch videos online which focus repeatedly on “we’re good guys” without providing any substantive information about why you should expect this program to continue.

But I have a fundamental question:

If the bulk of the customers have no need for the item they are purchasing, where is the value that this company is actually bringing to the marketplace?

In other words, they claim their goal is to be the biggest seller of online advertising in the world. They even claim to be threatening Google’s position as market leader.  But one thing I’ve noticed… the people/companies buying ads from Google (and other PPC establishments) have one thing in common: they all have something to advertise.

One friend of mine has a local contracting business.  My question for him was, “What are you advertising in the ASD system that people might be interested in purchasing?”  The answer: his local contracting business.  My next thought is, “What the heck does someone in Bolivia do when they see an ad for a contracting business in Florida?”

As a marketer, my next thought after that is… that’s a little bit like buying a billboard on a California freeway for your McDonald’s in Memphis.

Poor use of advertising dollars.

Not so poor, perhaps, for those who have a digital product with universal appeal, or perhaps those selling something that can be purchased and then shipped anywhere in the world.  Again, however, the key would be that it has universal appeal.

Like… toothbrushes.  We all need those, right?

Anyway…

Is It Sustainable?

Back to my fundamental question.  How long can this program carry on — even if they’re careful not to promise to pay out too much money in “rebates” — when their basic product is not needed by the people who are purchasing it today?

Can it be that the only reason they are buying advertising is so that they can earn a rebate?

The answer is: absolutely, 100%, unequivocally, “yes!”

And that, my friends, creates a problem: as soon as the market figures out that:

a. there are better ways to buy advertising, and

b. this is only sustainable as long as there are more people willing to buy something they don’t need,

the whole thing comes tumbling down…

…not unlike a Ponzi scheme.

Precisely, by the way, what the US Attorney in Washington D.C., otherwise known as the Attorney General, concluded.

Is anyone guilty of a crime here? Well… that remains to be seen.  In the meantime, no one is surfing the “ads.” No one is “purchasing ads,” and nobody is spending the $53M in cash that was seized while the investigation and the lawsuits proceed.

Bad news for those who used their life savings to buy something they didn’t need.